Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 25.263585 26.839617 28.521312 30.459478 32.644653 35.047841 37.912807
2025-11-16 22.453640 24.529650 26.861915 29.709896 33.142336 37.212853 42.513809
2025-11-23 21.329007 23.742024 26.550265 30.124116 34.652076 40.351951 48.351379
2025-11-30 20.259083 22.864329 25.977217 30.066750 35.458764 42.592482 53.287540
2025-12-07 19.286097 21.999060 25.307943 29.766736 35.841383 44.226327 57.563584
2025-12-14 18.079184 20.756268 24.062778 28.589462 34.886609 43.823332 58.622867
2025-12-21 17.543597 20.314736 23.795398 28.663737 35.634070 45.923118 64.005181
2025-12-28 17.157907 20.033776 23.705736 28.952204 36.687115 48.585825 70.910998
2026-01-04 16.482248 19.340351 23.025723 28.360017 36.368385 49.015406 73.797997
2026-01-11 16.264952 19.232067 23.117073 28.856446 37.727841 52.358095 83.261753
2026-01-18 15.975010 19.009972 23.035159 29.085942 38.678617 55.125119 92.430617
2026-01-25 15.392686 18.371057 22.344820 28.367251 38.030826 54.915236 94.624132
2026-02-01 14.686713 17.604429 21.531612 27.556020 37.399506 55.103239 99.196713
2026-02-08 14.056336 16.924549 20.820601 26.873965 36.957946 55.676802 105.464983
2026-02-15 13.800935 16.740238 20.793882 27.228497 38.308946 60.062975 125.650197
2026-02-22 13.451948 16.406934 20.528816 27.179313 38.930933 63.072648 144.413156
2026-03-01 13.076137 16.018098 20.159078 26.928578 39.145945 65.224790 162.529047
2026-03-08 12.528548 15.366099 19.370313 25.940655 37.870708 63.623171 162.777024
2026-03-15 12.294445 15.151201 19.222996 26.003141 38.615803 67.114916 192.931470
2026-03-22 12.121843 15.016246 19.186967 26.245606 39.739687 71.906358 242.147484
2026-03-29 11.777349 14.620490 18.735734 25.747511 39.306678 72.385647 263.417773
2026-04-05 11.673428 14.570224 18.811557 26.165154 40.820888 78.896552 367.757555
2026-04-12 11.522520 14.444697 18.763111 26.357911 41.881140 84.491753 520.591873